My picks

It's definitely too early to tell, but here are my picks...it's a toss up at this point, but I'm getting 'em in before the deadline.

Democrats:
Presidential Candidate: Clinton
Vice Presidential Candidate: Edwards

Republicans:
Presidential Candidate: Thompson
Vice Presidential Candidate: Hagel

Independent:
Presidential Candidate: Nader


Winner: Republican

Hillary as Empress?

I found this Reason article very damning of Hillary's views on foreign policy. The comparison of her and Cheney's view on executive authority should give pause to any anti-war Democratic enthusiastically supporting Hillary.

Supporting Hillary is like supporting a brand name. The fact that she has had a history of embracing the same overbearing foreign policy as the Bush-Cheney administration should throw her out of contention. However, she's running on her name...proof once again that a Presidential election is no more than a popularity contest.

Here's my faorite line in the article:

"A Hillary Clinton presidency promises to unite Madeleine Albright's zeal for using bombs in pursuit of liberal ideals with Dick Cheney's vision of the president as emperor. Won't that be fun?"

Bill Richardson...Market Democrat?

Curious as to what you think about this Reason article? Is Gov Richardson the "most libertarian" of all the Democratic candidates?

The author concludes that he doesn't have a real shot at the nomination, but may be a good VP candidate.

What happened to Michael Goldwater?

He created this blog, then he orphaned it.

Webb vs. Graham

Winthorpe's boy Webb slams Mike's boy Graham on Meet the Press!

I particularly like it when Webb says "don't put political words in my mouth"...when Graham throws out a tired "support the troops" slogan.

Ethanol articles on The Economist online

Will better times for farmers make it possible to reform farm subsidies?

Ethanol is rapidly transforming life in Iowa and the rest of the corn belt

Grain prices go the way of the oil price

A new biofuel made from fruit sugars promises more oomph than traditional ethanol

Yes, I know I'm being a hypocrite dumping out links without comments. I've got a busy day, though.

The War on Terrorism

Would like your thoughts on this Reason article about the terrorist threat.

I do believe the threat is overstated when put into perspective. The idea that our reaction to Al Qaeda has helped their worldwide image is an idea worthy of further exploration, although I don't think you could come up with any hard proof that America's reaction to Al Qaeda has raised the movement to mythological status. Certainly the publicity can't help, as you hear more and more about "Al Qaeda inspired" terrorists.

All I said above is something most politicians are afraid to say...you saw the beating Giuliani laid down on Ron Paul during the first Republican debate. I do think some candid analysis is necessary if we're going to succeed in the GWOT, or "long war".

If we're going to continue using terms like "war" to describe the fight, maybe we should use some of the basic analytical tools used to assess our success in the war...how are our actions effecting the enemy? I don't think numbers of arrest, or lack of attacks are the best measures of merit...they may be first order effects, those most visible. However, we must look deeper if we're to understand the challenges.

Homeland Security is largely an overreaction. The DHS is a largely inept bureaucracy. I'm not a fan of any curtailment of civil liberties. As long as we've got guys like Chertoff talking about their "gut feelings", the government will continue to push for further overreaction.

My 2008 predictions

Well, I'll mix it up a bit just to keep it interesting. Somebody has to go outside conventional wisdom, so I'll take a stab at it... By the way, Mike, you did not pick an overall winner.

Democrats:
Presidential Candidate: Governor Bill Richardson, D-NM
Vice Presidential Candidate: Governor Mike Easley, D-NC

Republicans:
Presidential Candidate: Senator Fred Thompson, R-TN
Vice Presidential Candidate: Mayor Rudy Giuliani, R-NY

Independent:
Presidential Candidate: Mayor Michael Bloomberg, I-NY
Vice Presidential Candidate: Senator Chuck Hagel, I/R-NE

While I would predict that the GOP will hold the White House in 2008, in this non-Hillary scenario I'll predict that the Democratic ticket will prevail. There you have it!

Ethanol

Your thoughts on Ethanol? I've never been a fan of the corn subsidy...corn's definitely not the answer for biofuel. I think the technology needs time to develop, as it stands, it's grossly inefficient.

If we're going to do this, we need to do it right...keep the government out of it. I fear real trade barriers and government subsidies in order to protect the American farmer.

Course Correction?

Lots of reporting over the past few days about more Republicans jumping ship on Iraq. There have been several articles from the Post and others talking about potential for withdrawal. Iraq has yet to meet any of its political benchmarks. What's the proper course of action? Read yesterday that W is lowering the bar for expectations, something that's been happening from the very beginning. It will be interesting to see McCain's position after he returns from Iraq...I'm betting that he'll abandon the President. He's got to do something to salvage his campaign.

I think this NY Times editorial is spot-on.

Republican support for the war waning

Yet another Republican is changing his position on the war. Are Republicans jumping ship in an attempt to distance themselves from W in '08? Probably so, as W's popularity is in the toilet. Here's a recent poll showing that about 45% of Americans support an impeachment.

Dr. Paul, Gaining Momentum

Looks like as McCain fizzles, Paul is rising. It appears his small campaign is raising big money. I did notice quite a few Ron Paul signs in Kailua over the weekend.

American Power: Still No. 1

This is a great article in The Economist which puts America's current woes into historical perspective. America will see brighter days. They deem that if the US were a stock, it would be rated as a "buy," given that it is undervalued and just needs new management...

Is McCain fizzling?

Saw several headlines about McCain's campaign losing steam. It seems a bit early for a campaign to go to shit. Campaigns usually start cutting their staff after a bad showing in Iowa or New Hampshire.

At the same time, it looks like Dr. Paul's campaign is growing...they're going to get a bigger office!

Independents

I'm sure by now you've seen the Washington Post's profile of Independent voters. They characterized independents into these 5 neat categories. IF you're an independent, how would you define yourself? As a self-defined Libertarian, but not a member of the party, I suppose you could call me an indpendent...I'm somewhere between disillusioned and dislocated. For this next election, I hope to be more of a Deliberator. Although I'm inclined to vote for anyone that promises to get us out of Iraq.

Here are the categories--

"Deliberators," who are classic swing voters.

"Disillusioned," who are acutely upset with politics today.

"Dislocated," who are both social liberals and fiscal conservatives.

"Disguised," who are partisans on the left and right who behave almost identically to Democrats or Republicans.

"Disengaged," who generally sit on the political sidelines.